No coalition party seems prepared for an early general election, according to former Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva, who also said that these parties are still trying to persuade their supporters that they ought to be re-elected. The administration of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is therefore expected to complete the remaining three years of its term.
However, he pointed out that the public’s declining faith in the Pheu Thai Party-led government is the coalition’s weak point and could worsen with any new negative information, like misconduct, or even lead to a full-blown crisis.
When asked if Paetongtarn, like her father Thaksin and aunt Yingluck, would likely be overthrown in a military coup, Abhisit responded that although her position as the third Shinawatra to lead the government would not be grounds for a coup, her leadership style might.
“No one wants to see this problem [of a coup overthrowing a government] happen again. Therefore, if this administration can resolve the country’s problems in a way that is morally sound, then everyone should be happy.
Despite his long-standing rivalry with the Pheu Thai Party, Abhisit admitted that the latter had won some battles that should have been part of the party’s core goals for future growth.
It is regrettable that [members of Pheu Thai] failed to build on their previous achievements in order to further their party. To make matters worse, they were still unable to fully break free from Shinawatra’s control.
Even though Thaksin’s influence over the Pheu Thai-led government would instill greater confidence in his supporters, Abhisit understands that he runs the risk of repeating the mistakes that brought him down in the past.
Therefore, if Thaksin has not learned from his past mistakes, there is a possibility that history will repeat itself.
Thawisan Lonanurak, an independent scholar and former secretary-general of the Northeast Chamber of Commerce, says the country’s 31st prime minister is facing a number of major challenges.
Reviewing the 36 new Cabinet ministers is expected to take longer than Pheu Thai and Paetongtarn had anticipated. If even one of the ministers is later found to be ineligible, it could cast doubt on the future of the new prime minister.
Former prime minister Srettha Thavisin was removed from office by a Constitutional Court ruling that found him guilty of a serious ethical violation after former criminal Pichit Chuenban was appointed as a PM’s Office minister.
Thawisan stressed that the Council of State and the Secretariat of the Cabinet need to be more cautious this time.
As Cabinet Ministers
The general quality of the prospective Cabinet ministers was also questioned. Thawisan claims that party quotas were utilized to fill positions rather than taking into account candidates’ qualifications.
“Seeing a police officer appointed to manage education administration while an academic is named minister of agriculture and cooperatives is just wrong and disheartening.”
The decision to allow a political party group to join the new coalition against the party’s resolution was also criticized by Thawisan, who said it might weaken the party’s institutional foundation. He predicted that other factions would eventually follow suit, disregarding party resolutions and negotiating with MPs from other parties to secure Cabinet seats.
The performance of the new government would be crucial to Pheu Thai’s chances in the next national election and the coalition’s ability to serve out its entire term, said Stithorn Thananithichot, head of the Office of Innovation for Democracy at King Prajadhipok’s Institute.
“If the country’s economy doesn’t improve at all by the end of this year, the new government might not last long.”
The leader of the Palang Pracharath Party, General Prawit Wongsuwon, who was excluded from the new government, is not expected to pose a direct threat. According to Thai media, Stithorn warned that if the Paetongtarn government does not perform better, the PM might face several challenges that could jeopardize her career and that Prawit might even turn against her.
